How Well-Calibrated Are You?
Good risk decisions depend on good estimates — and estimating well under uncertainty is a specific, measurable skill that most people overrate in themselves. When you say you're "90% sure," are you actually right 90% of the time? This quick test measures the gap between how confident you feel and how often you're right.
For more on why calibration matters before you trust an estimate, read Estimating Amongst Uncertainty on the MSEI blog.
How it works
Round 1: you'll give a 90% confidence range for 10 facts — a low and high value you believe has a 90% chance of containing the true answer.
Round 2: you'll answer 10 true/false statements and state how confident you are in each answer, from 50% (coin flip) to 100% (certain).
At the end you'll see your hit rate, your confidence-vs-accuracy gap, and a calibration curve — the same diagnostic used to spot overconfident estimators on a real project.